Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Connor JoeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Vince VelasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-5
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hayes scored on wild pitch by pitcher Chris Stratton.5–0
- 9Hayes scored on Stratton wild pitch.5–0
- 8Castro homered to center (401 feet).4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 8Joe homered to left center (410 feet).3–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7McCutchen hit sacrifice fly to center, Bae scored.2–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 6Santana doubled to third, McCutchen scored.1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Fair odds
- STL -112
- PIT +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +18 | PIT: Vince Velasquez: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +44 Elo | STL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.715th of 30 |
| 19th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.918th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.