St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to third.9–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–6
- 9Goldschmidt singled to right, Donovan scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Gorman homered to right center (414 feet).7–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Arenado doubled to left, Donovan scored, Goldschmidt scored and Edman scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Goldschmidt walked, Walker scored, Edman to second, Donovan to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 43–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Daza hit sacrifice fly to right, Moustakas scored.2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Cron homered to left (479 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5McMahon homered to center (427 feet), Profar scored and Bryant scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Díaz homered to center (432 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Yepez homered to left (398 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Edman homered to right (374 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Fair odds
- COL -116
- STL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +27 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 1.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +52 Elo | COL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.422nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.423rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.