St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Alan TrejoBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman doubled to center, Goldschmidt scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 7Daza reached on infield single to pitcher, Blackmon scored, McMahon to second, Bryant to third.3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Tovar doubled to left, Montero scored, Trejo to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Trejo singled to left, Díaz scored, Montero to second.3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6Goldschmidt singled to left, Donovan scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Trejo singled to center, Montero scored, Trejo to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Montero doubled to left, Díaz scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Goldschmidt singled to center, Burleson scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Burleson tripled to center, Donovan scored.1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Bryant struck out swinging, Tovar scored, Blackmon caught stealing second, catcher to second to first to shortstop.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Trejo scored, Tovar to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -112
- STL +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +14 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +24 Elo | COL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.523rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.