St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt doubled to left, Walker scored, Burleson to third.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Gorman homered to left center (389 feet), Contreras scored.6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Profar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tovar scored, Díaz out at second.4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Díaz singled to center, Daza scored, Tovar to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Motter doubled to right, O'Neill scored.4–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Cron grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Blackmon scored, McMahon out at second.3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Arenado homered to left center (416 feet), Goldschmidt scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2O'Neill homered to center (461 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Profar homered to right (400 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 47%
- Fair odds
- COL -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.8 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −18 | STL: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Urena: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.726th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.223rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.