Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-4
- Steven MatzPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Castro singled to right, Joe scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 10McCutchen homered to left (388 feet), Reynolds scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 33–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 8Castro doubled to left, Joe scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Goldschmidt walked, Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second, Edman to third.2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 42–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Joe walked, Hayes scored, Santana to second, Reynolds to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 42–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Burleson hit a ground rule double, Donovan scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Hayes homered to center (440 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | PIT: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.