Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Edman singled to center, O'Neill scored, Nootbaar to second, Gorman to third.4–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 10Gorman hit a ground rule double, Goldschmidt scored, Contreras to third.4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Smith-Njigba grounded out to first, McCutchen scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Nootbaar homered to right (382 feet), Contreras scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Smith-Njigba to home on error, Marcano to first on fielding error by second baseman Donovan, Castro to second.3–1
- 6Smith-Njigba to home on error, Marcano to first on fielding error by second baseman Donovan, Castro to second.3–1
- 6Smith-Njigba to home on error, Marcano to first on fielding error by second baseman Donovan, Castro to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Hedges singled to left, Suwinski scored, Marcano to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Contreras reached on infield single to first, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Hayes scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Fair odds
- STL -106
- PIT +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.716th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.