Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Madison BumgarnerPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moreno singled to left, Perdomo scored.5–14
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 6Gorman homered to right center (417 feet), Contreras scored, O'Neill scored and Walker scored.4–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–14
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 5Carlson reached on infield single to shortstop, Edman scored.4–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 5Edman tripled to center, Walker scored and Knizner scored.4–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 4Smith homered to right center (380 feet).4–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 3Edman homered to left (373 feet), O'Neill scored and Walker scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Walker singled to center, Contreras scored, O'Neill to third.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Thomas homered to center (432 feet), Smith scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Arenado scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- ARI +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | ARI: Madison Bumgarner: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.919th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 4–823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 2–0 STL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.