Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drey JamesonPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to right (353 feet), Goldschmidt scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 38–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 9Burleson grounded out to second, Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to third.8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–4
- 7Contreras homered to left center (441 feet).8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Longoria singled to left, Rojas scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.8–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Carlson doubled to center, O'Neill scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Moreno homered to center (399 feet), McCarthy scored and Ahmed scored.7–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Ahmed doubled to left, Walker scored and Longoria scored, McCarthy to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Walker doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Rojas singled to left, Moreno scored, Rojas out stretching at second.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -108
- ARI +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +15 | ARI: Drey Jameson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +17 Elo | STL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 4–724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.