San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe MusgrovePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth singled to center, Soto scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Kim singled to left, Soto scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts to second.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Walker homered to left (368 feet), Carroll scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Walker singled to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Carpenter doubled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left (374 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Fair odds
- ARI -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | SD: Joe Musgrove (no track record yet) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +44 Elo | ARI 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.912th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 6–33rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–2 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.