San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte singled to right, Perdomo scored.0–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8Rojas grounded out to shortstop, Thomas scored, Rojas out at first, Perdomo to third.0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 8Perdomo doubled to right, Smith scored and Moreno scored, Thomas to third.0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Moreno singled to center, Carroll scored and McCarthy scored, Smith to second.0–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Marte scored, Carroll to second.0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Marte doubled to right, Rojas scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Moreno reached on infield single to second, Walker scored, Smith to second.0–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Fair odds
- ARI -113
- SD +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +17 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +21 Elo | ARI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 5–35th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–1 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.