Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Betts doubled to left, Barnes scored and Vargas scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Martinez homered to left center (401 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Muncy homered to right (403 feet), Freeman scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Gomes homered to left center (377 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Betts homered to left center (371 feet), Barnes scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Bellinger scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Bellinger singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bellinger to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -115
- LAD +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +27 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 1.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +2.23rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–3 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.