Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peralta singled to right, Outman scored and Vargas scored.1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Wisdom homered to center (415 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -110
- CHC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −14 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +18 Elo | LAD 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.510th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.37th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.