Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ doubled to center, Hoerner scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 9Gomes homered to left (365 feet).7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 8Wisdom homered to left (388 feet).6–2
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 35–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 25–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 8Suzuki homered to left center (406 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Happ homered to right center (423 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Muncy homered to right (389 feet).3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Gomes homered to left center (391 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Hosmer grounded out to first, Bellinger scored, Hosmer out at first.2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Taylor homered to left center (412 feet).1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 6.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +1.83rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 12th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.