Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jarred KelenicBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hoerner singled to right, Madrigal scored.2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Kelenic homered to right (414 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 4Hosmer singled to left, Bellinger scored, Mancini to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Bellinger doubled to right, Happ scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Pollock hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −3 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 1.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +6 Elo | SEA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.37th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–310th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.