Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose RodriguezPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Nelson VelazquezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael RuckerPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8France reached on infield single to first, Crawford scored.9–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–14
- 6Madrigal singled to center, Hoerner scored.8–14
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–14
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–14
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–14
- 6Hoerner doubled to right, Hosmer scored and Velázquez scored.8–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–13
- 5Mancini singled to right, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.8–11
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–11
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–11
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–11
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–11
- 5Swanson reached on infield single to second, Velázquez scored, Hoerner to second.8–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–10
- 4Kelenic homered to center (415 feet).8–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–9
- 3Swanson singled to center, Hoerner scored.7–9
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–9
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–9
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–9
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–9
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–9
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–9
- 3Velázquez homered to left center (396 feet), Wisdom scored, Hosmer scored and Gomes scored.7–8
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–8
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 37–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 3Hosmer singled to right, Bellinger scored, Wisdom to second.7–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 3Mancini homered to center (419 feet), Swanson scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -113
- SEA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | SEA: Chris Flexen: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +25 Elo | CHC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.010th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.