Seattle Mariners at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bellinger homered to right (395 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Kelenic homered to center (482 feet).5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Hernández homered to left center (419 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7France singled to center, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Hernández reached on infield single to second, France scored, Raleigh to second, Suárez to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Suárez singled to right, Crawford scored, France to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Fair odds
- CHC -116
- SEA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 5.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +30 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 1.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +45 Elo | CHC 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.37th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 5–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.