Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-2
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-3
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Madrigal scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Capel, Hoerner safe at second on error.4–0
- 8Madrigal scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Capel, Hoerner safe at second on error.4–0
- 8Madrigal scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Capel, Hoerner safe at second on error.4–0
- 8Madrigal scored on error, Hoerner safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Capel, Hoerner safe at second on error.4–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 8Madrigal singled to center, Bellinger scored.3–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 8Gomes grounded out to shortstop, Wisdom scored, Bellinger to second.2–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 8Bellinger singled to right, Suzuki scored, Wisdom to third.1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 44%
- Fair odds
- OAK -100
- CHC +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | +3 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 1.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +40 Elo | CHC 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 7.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −4.230th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 2–828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.