Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting2-4
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wisdom homered to center (412 feet), Swanson scored and Suzuki scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 37–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Happ hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 4Hoerner singled to left, Gomes scored, Hoerner to second, Madrigal thrown out at home.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Gomes singled to right, Bellinger scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Suzuki singled to left, Hoerner scored, Swanson to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Wisdom homered to left center (428 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ruiz scored, Noda out at second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 50%
- Fair odds
- OAK -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +1 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +1 Elo | CHC 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 7.830th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −3.930th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.