Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz singled to left, Noda scored, Laureano to second.8–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 8Pérez singled to center, Allen scored.7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 8K. Smith sacrificed to first, Peterson scored, Allen to second.6–4
- 8Aguilar hit sacrifice fly to left, Ruiz scored, Peterson to third.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Rutschman singled to right, Mullins scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Mullins singled to right, Frazier scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pérez homered to left (396 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2McKenna hit sacrifice fly, Henderson scored, McKenna to first on fielding error by right fielder Rooker, Mateo to third.3–2
- 2McKenna hit sacrifice fly, Henderson scored, McKenna to first on fielding error by right fielder Rooker, Mateo to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Mateo doubled to left, Urías scored, Henderson to third.3–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 33–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Rooker homered to center (420 feet), Kemp scored and Laureano scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- OAK +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +43 Elo | BAL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.65th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.1 | Runs allowed | 5.324th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–5 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–2 BAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.