Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to right, Hays scored.1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 6Hays homered to center (417 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Rutschman homered to left (399 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Mountcastle homered to left center (421 feet), Mullins scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Laureano tripled to right, Díaz scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 11 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.0 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.011th of 30 |
| 30th of 308.0 | Runs allowed | 5.423rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–218th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.