Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-4, 2 HR, 9 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peterson doubled to left, Aguilar scored.8–12
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–12
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 37–12
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 27–12
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–12
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–12
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 17–12
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–12
- 7Mountcastle homered to left (456 feet), Mateo scored, Hays scored and Rutschman scored.7–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–8
- 7Hays singled to center, Henderson scored, Hays to second, Mateo to third.7–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 6Hays homered to left center (413 feet).7–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 17–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 5Mountcastle homered to center (417 feet), Hays scored and Rutschman scored.7–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 5Langeliers homered to left (417 feet), Peterson scored and Smith scored.7–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Capel grounded out to first, Rooker scored, Smith to second, Peterson to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Smith singled to left, Noda scored, Peterson to second, Rooker to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- OAK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | OAK: Kyle Muller: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.7 | Runs allowed | 5.021st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.9 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.