New York Mets at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- James KaprielianPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guillorme singled to left, Vogelbach scored, Escobar to third.17–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play17–6
- 9Escobar doubled to left, Alonso scored and McNeil scored, Vogelbach to third.16–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play16–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking16–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 216–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 116–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–6
- 9Vogelbach walked, Lindor scored, McNeil to second, Alonso to third.14–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 414–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 313–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–6
- 7Kemp hit sacrifice fly to right, Langeliers scored.13–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play13–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–5
- 6Rooker homered to center (401 feet).13–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 113–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking13–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging13–4
- 6Marte doubled to left, Nimmo scored.13–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 112–4
- 5Díaz homered to left (383 feet).12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–4
- 5Vogelbach grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Lindor scored, McNeil out at second, Alonso to third.12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–3
- 5Lindor doubled to left, Marte scored, Nido scored and Nimmo scored.11–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 28–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 5Marte walked, Guillorme scored, Nimmo to second, Nido to third.8–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 48–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 37–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 43%
- Fair odds
- OAK -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −25 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: James Kaprielian: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 7.830th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −3.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.