Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Adrian MartinezPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rutschman homered to right center (405 feet).7–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 5Rooker homered to left (401 feet).7–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 4Ruiz singled to center, Langeliers scored and Pérez scored, Allen to third.6–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 3Mateo grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Frazier scored, Vavra out at second.4–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 3O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Hays scored, Frazier to third.4–6
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 3Frazier singled to right, Henderson scored, Hays to third.4–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–4
- 3Mountcastle homered to center (416 feet).4–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 24–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 14–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Rooker homered to center (424 feet), Allen scored and Ruiz scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Mateo hit sacrifice fly to center, Vavra scored.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Fair odds
- BAL -115
- OAK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.9 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | OAK: Adam Oller (no track record yet) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +36 Elo | BAL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.57th of 30 |
| 30th of 307.8 | Runs allowed | 5.525th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–2 BAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.