New York Mets at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lindor walked, Escobar scored on Jackson wild pitch, Marte to third on wild pitch by Jackson.4–3
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 44–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 33–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Alonso homered to center (430 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Langeliers doubled to left, Díaz scored and Peterson scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Lindor homered to left center (393 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Ruiz singled to center, K. Smith scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pham homered to right center (401 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Fair odds
- OAK -105
- NYM +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 5.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | NYM: Jose Butto (no track record yet) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +10 Elo | OAK 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 8.130th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −4.130th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.