New York Mets at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Esteury RuizBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Shintaro FujinamiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Nimmo doubled to right, Locastro scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Canha homered to left (414 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Alonso homered to left (421 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Ruiz singled to center, Díaz scored, Pérez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Capel grounded out to first, Laureano scored, Capel out at first, Díaz to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 48%
- Fair odds
- OAK -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.2 – 5.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −24 | NYM: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Shintaro Fujinami: team allows 1.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 8.430th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −4.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 2–528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.