Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Julio UriasPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Betts singled to right, Taylor scored, Barnes to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Bellinger homered to right (422 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Wisdom homered to left (402 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Torrens reached on infield single to pitcher, Bellinger scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Taylor homered to left (408 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -113
- CHC +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +23 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.