Chicago Cubs at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Eric HosmerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Carlos PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mason MillerPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Madrigal singled to center, Torrens scored and Hosmer scored, Madrigal to second.12–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 9Torrens doubled to center, Bellinger scored on throwing error by center fielder Ruiz, Swanson scored and Happ scored.10–2
- 9Torrens doubled to center, Bellinger scored on throwing error by center fielder Ruiz, Swanson scored and Happ scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 8Hosmer homered to left center (398 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 6Wisdom scored on Moll wild pitch.6–2
- 6Wisdom scored on Moll wild pitch.6–2
- 6Wisdom tripled to right, Happ scored and Bellinger scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to first, Swanson scored, Happ third.3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5J. Diaz singled to right, Wade scored on fielding error by right fielder Wisdom, J. Diaz to second.2–2
- 5J. Diaz singled to right, Wade scored on fielding error by right fielder Wisdom, J. Diaz to second.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Barnhart hit sacrifice fly to center, Hosmer scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Fair odds
- CHC -100
- OAK +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +3 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OAK: Mason Miller (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 7.730th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −4.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 2–929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.