New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martinez singled to center, Outman scored, Martinez out stretching at second.0–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to left, Barnes scored, Outman to second.0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Martinez homered to right (378 feet).0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Martinez homered to center (438 feet), Freeman scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Fair odds
- LAD -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +3 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +4 Elo | NYM 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.46th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 5–516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.