New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Alonso singled to left, Marte scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–6
- 7Lindor grounded out to first, Nimmo scored, Lindor out at first, Marte to third.7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Nido scored on a balk, Marte to second on a balk, Nimmo to third on a balk.6–6
- 7Nido scored on a balk, Marte to second on a balk, Nimmo to third on a balk.6–6
- 6Muncy homered to center (433 feet).5–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Freeman homered to center (384 feet), Betts scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 4Baty singled to right, McNeil scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Vogelbach grounded out to second, Alonso scored, Vogelbach out at first, McNeil to third.4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4McNeil singled to left, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Wynns doubled to center, Thompson scored and Vargas scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Vogelbach homered to left center (390 feet), Canha scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +19 Elo | LAD 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.