Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Outman homered to right (402 feet), Heyward scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 9Muncy homered to right (384 feet).7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Hoerner homered to center (404 feet), Ríos scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 7Muncy homered to right center (412 feet), Freeman scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Vargas singled to center, Martinez scored, Outman to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Hosmer doubled to center, Suzuki scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Outman singled to right, Martinez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Outman homered to right (366 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Suzuki grounded into fielder's choice to first, Hoerner scored, Happ out at second, Swanson to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- LAD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +29 Elo | CHC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +2.52nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–5 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–3 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.