New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting5-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peralta homered to right center (388 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 9Canha doubled to left, Nimmo scored and Guillorme scored.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Martinez doubled to left, Freeman scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Nimmo homered to center (431 feet), Álvarez scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Peralta hit sacrifice fly to right, Heyward scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 49%
- Fair odds
- LAD -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −19 | NYM: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.27th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–1 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.