Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- David PeraltaBatting1-1
- Julio UriasPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mancini singled to left, Wisdom scored.0–13
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–13
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–12
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–12
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 5Hoerner homered to left (375 feet), Mancini scored and Gomes scored.0–12
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–12
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Mancini singled to center, Bellinger scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Wisdom homered to left (409 feet), Happ scored and Suzuki scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Mancini homered to left center (368 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Bellinger homered to right (376 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Hoerner singled to left, Madrigal scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored and Swanson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Fair odds
- CHC -112
- LAD +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +8 | LAD: Julio Urias: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +1.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–2 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.