Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- James OutmanBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Outman homered to right (390 feet), Peralta scored, Vargas scored and Heyward scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Hoerner singled to right, Hosmer scored, Hoerner to second, Mancini thrown out at home.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Outman homered to right center (420 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Bellinger homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Muncy homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- LAD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −8 | LAD: Michael Grove: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.83rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.56th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–2 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.