San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Swanson homered to left (359 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 5Happ singled to right, Hoerner scored, Swanson to third.1–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Barnhart singled to center, Madrigal scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Velázquez homered to left center (404 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Hosmer homered to center (414 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Machado homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Fair odds
- CHC -111
- SD +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −15 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–1 CHC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.