San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Trey ManciniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew SmylyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. singled to center, Kim scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to left, Kim scored and Grisham scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Hoerner singled to center, Wisdom scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–2
- 4Mancini homered to left (399 feet), Suzuki scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Cronenworth tripled to right, Bogaerts scored and Cruz scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Fair odds
- CHC -116
- SD +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +51 Elo | CHC 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.83rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.03rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 7–716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 0–1 CHC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.