Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jean SeguraBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Segura singled to center, Hampson scored, García to second, Arraez to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Segura singled to left, Arraez scored, García to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Hosmer singled to right, Bellinger scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Berti grounded into double play, third to second to first, Sánchez scored, Fortes out at second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Velázquez homered to left (384 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- CHC +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +9 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.525th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.