Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Berti scored, Sánchez to second.3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (392 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Hampson doubled to right, Fortes scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Arraez singled to center, Berti scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Cooper struck out swinging, Hampson scored, Berti to second on passed ball by Gomes, Berti safe at third on throwing error by catcher Gomes.1–1
- 3Cooper struck out swinging, Hampson scored, Berti to second on passed ball by Gomes, Berti safe at third on throwing error by catcher Gomes.1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 3Swanson singled to left, Ríos scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 45%
- Fair odds
- MIA -106
- CHC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −14 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.99 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +35 Elo | CHC 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 9–69th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 0–2 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.