Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abrams singled to center, Thomas scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Smith grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Meneses scored, Candelario out at second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Hoerner scored, Happ to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.5 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.718th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 4–1228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.