Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Miguel AndujarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Rich HillPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Nationals- Riley AdamsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to left, Bae scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Hedges walked, Suwinski scored, Bae to second, Marcano to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 45–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Thomas grounded out to first, García scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Andujar homered to left center (391 feet), McCutchen scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Adams doubled to left, García scored and Garrett scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Joe homered to center (411 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Andujar singled to left, Joe scored, Castro to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -103
- PIT +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | PIT: Rich Hill: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +6 Elo | PIT 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 2–928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.