Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil tripled to right, Alonso scored.8–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 28–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking8–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–9
- 8Alonso doubled to right, Marte scored.8–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 8Abrams homered to right center (406 feet), Thomas scored, Garrett scored and Robles scored.8–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–7
- 8García hit sacrifice fly to left, Ruiz scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Vogelbach singled to center, Alonso scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Lindor doubled to right, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Robles grounded into fielder's choice to third, Thomas scored, García to second, Garrett out at third.3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 6García singled to center, Meneses scored, Garrett to second, Thomas to third.2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +31 Elo | NYM 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 4–415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–0 NYM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.