New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Yastrzemski doubled to center, Pederson scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Álvarez homered to left center (368 feet).4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Wisely grounded into fielder's choice to second, Crawford scored, Sabol out at second.3–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Sabol singled to right, Estrada scored, Crawford to third.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, Vogelbach scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4Canha hit sacrifice fly, McNeil scored, Canha to first on fielding error by right fielder Conforto, Baty to second, Vogelbach to third.2–2
- 4Canha hit sacrifice fly, McNeil scored, Canha to first on fielding error by right fielder Conforto, Baty to second, Vogelbach to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Lindor doubled to left, Marte scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Estrada homered to left center (413 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pederson singled to right, Wade Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Fair odds
- SF -103
- NYM +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.5 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +18 Elo | NYM 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.