New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 K
Giants- Brandon CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to left, Canha scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Marte singled to left, Baty scored, Nimmo to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Flores homered to left center (401 feet).2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 3Nimmo homered to right center (422 feet).2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 2Conforto grounded into fielder's choice to first, Estrada scored.1–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 2Ruf singled to right, Ramos scored, Ruf to second, Estrada to third.1–5
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Vogelbach doubled to center, Canha scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 1Crawford homered to right (375 feet), Conforto scored and Flores scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -102
- NYM +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −5 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +14 Elo | NYM 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 2–627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–0 SF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.