New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting1-4
- Anthony DeSclafaniPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vogelbach singled to right, McNeil scored, Alonso to second.7–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 9Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored, McNeil to third.6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Alonso homered to center (415 feet), McNeil scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5McNeil reached on infield single to catcher, Guillorme to home on throwing error by catcher Bart.2–0
- 5McNeil reached on infield single to catcher, Guillorme to home on throwing error by catcher Bart.2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Guillorme singled to left, Canha scored, Baty to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 53%
- Fair odds
- SF -106
- NYM +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi (no track record yet) · SF: Anthony DeSclafani: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +18 Elo | SF 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.223rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 1–0 SF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.