New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Giants- LaMonte Wade Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7McNeil singled to center, Alonso scored, Vogelbach to second.9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Alonso singled to center, Canha scored and Lindor scored, Alonso to second.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 6McNeil homered to right (355 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Conforto scored on Senga wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by Senga.5–4
- 5Conforto scored on Senga wild pitch, Yastrzemski to second on wild pitch by Senga.5–4
- 5Yastrzemski singled to center, Estrada scored, Conforto to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Wade Jr. homered to left center (373 feet).5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Sabol homered to center (423 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 4Nimmo doubled to left, Guillorme scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Escobar homered to left (371 feet), McNeil scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Alonso homered to left (366 feet), Lindor scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −7 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +13 Elo | NYM 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.