Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3
- Jose ButtoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Meneses singled to center, García scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6García doubled to center, Call scored and Robles scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Meneses singled to center, García scored, Candelario to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Ruiz homered to center (414 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -116
- WSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.1 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −2 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.911th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 4–23rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.