Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Candelario singled to left, Robles scored, Call to second.10–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 39–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 9Robles doubled to left, Adams scored.9–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–4
- 7Larnach doubled to right, Kepler scored and Polanco scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 7Abrams homered to right (370 feet), Thomas scored and Smith scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Correa singled to right, Gallo scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Candelario hit sacrifice fly to center, Robles scored.5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 3Buxton homered to left (379 feet).4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 2García singles to center, Call scored, Meneses to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Meneses singled to center, Robles scored, Call to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Candelario scored on P. López wild pitch, García to second on wild pitch by P. López, Meneses to third on wild pitch by P. López.2–0
- 1Candelario scored on P. López wild pitch, García to second on wild pitch by P. López, Meneses to third on wild pitch by P. López.2–0
- 1Meneses reached on infield single to third, Call scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +13 | WSH: Chad Kuhl: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +66 Elo | MIN 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.