Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jorge AlcalaPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Alex VerdugoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Julien singled to center, Vázquez scored, Kepler to third, Solano to second, Kepler tagged out at third.5–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 9Vázquez singled to right, Gordon scored.4–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–11
- 8Yoshida singled to left, Arroyo scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–10
- 7Castro homered to right (413 feet), Miranda scored.3–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–10
- 5Chang homered to left (388 feet), Casas scored.1–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 5Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Kepler hit a ground rule double, Castro scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Duran doubled to center, Casas scored and Wong scored.0–7
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.5 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | MIN: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +13 Elo | BOS 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.424th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 6–613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.