Minnesota Twins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Enrique HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corey KluberPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran hit sacrifice fly to center, Hernández scored.10–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 310–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Hernández homered to left (371 feet).10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–2
- 6Larnach homered to center (423 feet), Kepler scored and Buxton scored.10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 5Verdugo grounded into double play, first to shortstop to pitcher, Duran scored, Valdez out at second.7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Tapia grounded out to shortstop, Casas scored, Tapia out at first, Verdugo to second, Valdez to third.7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–0
- 3Gallo homered to right center (417 feet), Julien scored and Miranda scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Miranda singled to center, Larnach scored, Julien to second.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Julien homered to right (418 feet), Buxton scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Larnach grounded out to first, Kepler scored, Larnach out at first, Buxton to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -108
- MIN +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.6 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Corey Kluber: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 5.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 6–512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.