Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Donovan SolanoBatting1-3
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6LeMahieu homered to right (340 feet).0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3LeMahieu singled to right, Judge scored, Rizzo to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Fair odds
- NYY -111
- MIN +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +21 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +25 Elo | NYY 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.815th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 5–412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.