Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Twins- Michael A. TaylorBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa homered to right center (401 feet).1–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 8Taylor singled to center, Castro scored.0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Castro doubled to right, Jeffers scored.0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Taylor grounded out to first, Jeffers scored, Julien to second, Castro to third.0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -117
- CHW +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.5 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +18 | CHW: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 28th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 2.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.28th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHW 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.